| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Marshall | 45-0 | 1730.6 | +100.5 | 1831.1 | 94.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Temple | 27-9 | 1831.1 | -32.6 | 1798.5 | 95.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Buffalo | 55-13 | 1798.5 | +15.1 | 1813.6 | 98.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Wisconsin | 20-24 | 1813.6 | -52.1 | 1761.4 | 80.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Northwestern | 13-34 | 1761.4 | -13.8 | 1747.6 | 56.7% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | USC | 23-31 | 1747.6 | -19.4 | 1728.2 | 50.2% |