| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Nevada | 46-11 | 2039.5 | +8.7 | 2048.2 | 96.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Florida International | 34-0 | 2048.2 | -12.8 | 2035.4 | 98.0% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Villanova | 52-6 | 2035.4 | -0.3 | 2035.1 | 99.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Oregon | 24-30 | 2019.1 | -10.1 | 2009.0 | 36.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | UCLA | 37-42 | 2009.0 | -69.0 | 1940.0 | 94.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Northwestern | 21-22 | 1940.0 | -36.0 | 1904.0 | 82.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Iowa | 24-25 | 1904.0 | +29.2 | 1933.2 | 43.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Ohio State | 14-38 | 1931.0 | -12.1 | 1918.9 | 17.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Indiana | 24-27 | 1918.9 | +20.3 | 1939.2 | 13.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Michigan State | 28-10 | 1939.2 | +15.0 | 1954.2 | 85.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Nebraska | 37-10 | 1954.2 | +32.5 | 1986.7 | 66.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Rutgers | 40-36 | 1986.7 | -6.2 | 1980.5 | 84.1% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Clemson | 22-10 | 1981.8 | +8.2 | 1990.0 | 67.2% |